Long-term Risk and Opportunity Register

VTrans' long-term planning focuses on the impacts facing Virginia's transportation system. In this case, “long-term” means over the next 20 years.

According to VTrans policy, these impacts stem from four powerful forces known as “Megatrends":

• Climate
• Technology
• Consumption
• Socio-demographics

What is the Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register?

The Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register identifies powerful transformative forces, referred to as Megatrends and Macrotrends, likely to directly or indirectly impact Virginia's transportation system over the next few decades. This policy allows Virginia to systematically monitor the trends and their impacts and proactively identify Strategic Actions to address them.

Four Megatrends and Ten Macrotrends are identified based on the literature review.

Megatrend 1: Climate

• Macrotrend 1: Increase in Flooding Risk

Megatrend 2: Technological Changes

• Macrotrend 2: Adoption of Highly Autonomous Vehicles
• Macrotrend 3: Adoption of Electric Vehicles
• Macrotrend 4: Growth in Shared Mobility

Megatrend 3: Consumption Patterns

• Macrotrend 5: Growth in E-Commerce
• Macrotrend 6: Greater Automation of Goods and Services

Megatrend 4: Socio-Demographics

• Macrotrend 7: Growth of Professional Service Industry
• Macrotrend 8: Increase in Workplace Flexibility
• Macrotrend 9: Growth of the 65+ Cohort
• Macrotrend 10: Population and Employment Shift